Feijóo propone el uso obligatorio de mascarilla en colegios

El presidente de la Xunta de Galicia en funciones, Alberto Núñez Feijóo, ha puesto sobre la mesa este miércoles que el uso de la mascarilla en las aulas sea obligatorio no solo para los profesores, como ya se contemplaba, sino también "en todo momento" dentro del recinto educativo para los alumnos a partir de los seis años.(Fuente: Xunta)
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If Biden wins, here’s how he could undo Trump’s deregulation agenda
Janeen Jones for Vox Biden could use Trump’s playbook to reverse his regulatory moves on pollution, worker safety, health care, and more. Cutting workplace safety inspections. Allowing subpar health insurance plans to be sold to Americans. Permitting tractor-trailer drivers to blow past previous driver-fatigue limits. Waging war on birth control. These deregulatory actions and others taken by President Donald Trump’s administration have adversely impacted the health and safety of Americans, according to System Failure, an investigative series produced by the Center for Public Integrity and Vox. But Trump’s actions may not stick. If former Vice President Joe Biden wins the November 3 election, he’ll have a few tools at his disposal to undo some of Trump’s regulatory maneuvers. And if Democrats take control of both houses of Congress, they’ll be able to quickly wipe out regulations pushed through in the last 60 legislative days of Trump’s term, thanks to the Congressional Review Act, part of the Contract With America that Newt Gingrich and House Republicans campaigned on in 1994. Alex Wong/Getty Images Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden speaks outside during a campaign stop on September 30, 2020, in Johnstown, Pennsylvania. It won’t be clear until mid-January when the 60-day period began — because it all depends on how many days Congress meets between now and January 3, when its current term ends — but experts predict it started sometime during the summer. Since July 1, for example, a Public Integrity analysis shows more than 1,000 regulatory changes have been published in the Federal Register, though only about 100 of them have risen to the level of being reviewed by the Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs, which is charged with sifting out “significant” regulations. The changes that could be subject to the Congressional Review Act include one that weakens methane emissions standards and one that opened the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge to drilling. Trump and Republicans in Congress actually set in motion a number of rollbacks themselves when they took office, said Bethany Davis Noll, litigation director for the Institute for Policy Integrity at the New York University School of Law. The Trump administration, more than any other in the US history, aggressively pursued the rollback of federal regulations, particularly the ones put in place by President Barack Obama — including a rule meant to prevent people with mental health issues from buying guns and a regulation aimed at keeping coal companies from dumping mining waste into streams. Republicans used the Congressional Review Act to undo at least 14 of the Obama administration’s rules. Before Trump took office, the law had only been used once. Biden has already said that if he wins, he plans to roll back more than 100 Trump administration public health and environmental regulations, including his reversal of protections for transgender people. We asked Davis Noll to explain how Biden will execute these rollbacks if he takes the election. This interview has been edited for brevity and clarity. Sarah Kleiner Our reporting with Vox showed that the Trump administration made a number of regulatory maneuvers that had an adverse effect on the health and safety of Americans. If Biden is elected, what options will his administration have if he wants to undo some of what Trump has done? Davis Noll There’s a slew of options, starting with issuing quick rollbacks of the rollbacks. And the reason I say it’s an option to issue them quickly is because there was, often with these rules, a very robust record in place for the Obama-era rule — and then the Trump administration rolled it back with some cursory explanation. The Biden administration can then pull that record up from the previous Obama administration rule and update it. And it should be pretty simple to say, “This record still works. You know, there hasn’t been that much time that has passed, and this rule that was vastly beneficial to the American people is still a good idea.” So that’s one thing. Alex Wong/Getty Images President Barack Obama (left) walks with Vice President Joe Biden after giving a statement on the Supreme Court’s decision to uphold subsidies in the Affordable Care Act on June 25, 2015. In court, there’s a whole bunch of cases pending on Trump-era rules, and I would imagine that, in many of those cases, the Department of Justice will ask for a pause on litigation. Because the new agency isn’t going to want to defend the Trump-era rule. They’re going to want to figure things out and work on these rollbacks. And so we won’t see decisions out of court affirming Trump-era rules. And then we’ll see if the Congressional Review Act is an option too. Congress has to be aligned with the president, so both House and Senate have to have Democratic majorities. Sarah Kleiner In March 2019, your report “Regulation in Transition” outlined some of the aggressive tools Trump had used to roll back Obama-era regulations. You found that, through some strategies that other presidents had not used in the past, “the Trump administration was able to reach a far greater proportion of regulations finalized during Obama’s presidency than would have been possible under prior practices.” What did you find in your research, and how does it affect the average American? Davis Noll What Ricky Revesz and I found in this paper is that the Trump administration has used these rollback strategies just to a much greater extent than ever previously used — more than any administration had previously used them. And that means two things. One, it means now there’s this road map that the next administration is going to be expected to at least think about following. Because usually when you’ve got this tit-for-tat strategy going on between the two parties, it continues — and it accelerates, if anything. So it means that the new administration is under a lot of pressure to issue rules as quickly as possible. The other thing that it does is it kind of puts us in this flip-flop world. It’s this era of partisan back-and-forth that is just very volatile. It means you can’t, as an agency, issue rules that will be long-lasting without this speedy work. So what it does to the regulated industry is it creates a volatile atmosphere, and I think most people would agree that it’s better for our industry to not have that. Because we want our business leaders to be thinking about innovation and investment instead of things like, “What’s the regulation going to look like tomorrow?” Sarah Kleiner To be clear, these are actions taken in the executive branch, without Congress weighing in, correct? Davis Noll Yeah, we’re talking about agency regulations. And another thing that has happened in the last 20 to 30 years is presidents have more and more turned to their agencies to make policy, because we can’t get much out of Congress these days. There’s just massive gridlock there. It’s been there for a while, and it seems like it’s continuing. There was this really great article written by Supreme Court Justice Elena Kagan, when she was a law professor, called “Presidential Administration,” back in 2001. It was about the Clinton administration. And she said the Clinton administration had basically turned to its agencies to make policy because of congressional gridlock. And she predicted that presidents would do that more and more. And we’ve definitely seen that. They said that about Obama, that he did this more than any prior president. And now with Trump, they’re saying he’s gone to his agencies even more than any prior president to make policy, because he can’t get anything out of Congress. Like with the Affordable Care Act repeal that he wanted — that didn’t happen. And so he’s just chipping away at the Affordable Care Act through rulemaking. Sarah Kleiner That’s a lot of power concentrated in one branch of government. So Trump found a new, more aggressive way of rolling back his predecessor’s regulations. Did he set a precedent that he’s going to regret if Biden wins? Davis Noll Yeah, I mean, he used the Congressional Review Act — the administration, plus Congress — used the Congressional Review Act to roll back a bunch of rules that were issued at the end of the Obama term. Even though we don’t know what’s going to happen with the election, that’s already had a huge impact on the end of the Trump administration. At the end of the first term, for example, the vehicle emissions rule that was finalized in April of this year was, by some accounts, rushed out because they were afraid of the Congressional Review Act. “The whole country is worried about the pandemic, and these agencies are issuing rules that roll back vehicle emissions regulations” Sarah Kleiner Our June analysis found that, since Trump declared the coronavirus a national emergency in March, the White House signed off on or was reviewing more than 250 temporary or permanent regulatory actions. How does this compare to past administrations? Davis Noll It’s pretty typical that administrations issue a lot of rules in the final days. That happens a lot. I have definitely not done an empirical study on how close the Trump administration is to prior administrations, but it’s not a new thing. Maybe it’s new that it’s happening in the middle of a pandemic. Win McNamee/Getty Images President Donald Trump speaks during a coronavirus task force briefing at the White House on March 31, 2020, in Washington, DC. It’s definitely something to behold when the whole country is worried about the pandemic, and these agencies are issuing rules that roll back vehicle emissions regulations. The priorities don’t seem like they’re in the right place. Sarah Kleiner Do you think they’re trying to take advantage of the fact that people are preoccupied by the pandemic? Davis Noll I guess I can’t really say what the intent is. But I also think they would have issued these rollbacks anyway. I’m sure the pandemic didn’t change that. It’s just something else, especially when it’s a respiratory illness that’s affecting the country, to have agencies issuing rules that roll back emissions cuts that would have helped, that would have cleaned up the air. It just makes it more striking how these agencies are acting far outside the scope of what Congress envisioned. Sarah Kleiner You study litigation and keep track of Trump’s regulatory win-loss rate and what role courts play in the regulation landscape. What have you found so far about the Trump administration? Davis Noll What I’ve been tracking is court decisions on agency actions to either roll back regulations or make policy for the president. Like I was saying before, presidents use their agencies to make policy. One of the best ways to see if it’s working is: What’s the success rate in court? The overall success rate right now is 15.6 percent. And it stands in stark contrast to prior administrations. Prior scholars have looked at prior administrations and just consistently, across the board, have found that agencies win 70 percent of the time, more or less. And so to see a win rate now of 15.6 percent, it’s very surprising. It’s very, very shocking. Also, you can sort on my tracker for deregulation, and the win rate for deregulatory cases is 13.8 percent. So it’s a little lower. So the agencies are not doing very well in court. Sarah Kleiner Why do you think that is? Davis Noll There’s two big issues that consistently have come up. One is agencies are acting outside their statutory authority. And two is they are not providing the required explanation for what they’re doing. There’s this standard that requires agencies to provide a reasoned explanation for their decision, and in many cases, the agencies are doing something that’s actually harmful. With the vehicle emissions rollback, the baseline was a rule that was going to improve fuel economy over time and reduce greenhouse gas emissions from cars. And so if you roll that back, what you’re doing is you’re increasing greenhouse gas emissions from cars and reducing fuel economy. So that’s a harmful thing. And it’s not that easy to give an explanation for that. That case is pending. But there are a whole bunch of other cases that have already been decided that are like that, where the agency is doing something that’s actually harmful, and they haven’t been succeeding in court, when they try to explain why they did what they did. Sarah Kleiner What else should we keep an eye on if Biden wins? Davis Noll You’ll see agencies getting back to doing their job, like looking at their statutes, which often say something like “reduce emissions,” in the case of the Environmental Protection Agency, or “regulate this thing that is harmful to the public.” And you’ll see agencies getting back to doing the business of the agencies. That’s what we’ve been missing. I think the data shows that that’s what we haven’t been seeing these last four years. We haven’t been seeing agencies interested in implementing the statutes as Congress wrote them. They’re trying to implement President Trump’s policies, and often those policies are not what Congress intended. If we’re asking about what we imagine we could see out of a new administration, I predict agencies will go back to doing their jobs. I don’t think that’s like a tit-for-tat thing. I think those bounds are still there, those guardrails. Their importance has been reaffirmed in the last few years and I don’t think the Trump administration has been successful at kicking them down. So I don’t imagine that the next administration would want to act outside those bounds. Alex Wong/Getty Images Democratic members of US Senate Judiciary Committee walk down the east front steps of the US Capitol for a news conference on October 22, 2020, in Washington, DC.
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If Joe Biden beats Donald Trump decisively next week, this election may be remembered as a hinge point in American history: the moment when a clear majority of voters acknowledged that there’s no turning back from America’s transformation into a nation of kaleidoscopic diversity, a future that doesn’t rely on a backward-facing promise to make America great again. But that doesn’t mean the voters who embody the nation’s future are guaranteed a lasting victory over those who feel threatened by it.With Biden embracing America’s evolution and Trump appealing unrestrainedly to the white voters most fearful of it, the 2020 campaign marks a new peak in the most powerful trend shaping politics in this century. Over the past two decades, and especially since Barack Obama’s election in 2008, voters have re-sorted among the parties and thus reconfigured the central fault line between them. Today Republicans and Democrats are divided less by class or region than by attitudes toward the propulsive demographic, cultural, and economic shifts remaking 21st-century America. On one side, Republicans now mobilize what I’ve called a “coalition of restoration”; on the other, Democrats assemble a “coalition of transformation.”Republicans have grown more reliant on support from mostly white and Christian constituencies and the exurban, small-town, and rural communities that have been the least touched, and most unnerved, by cultural and economic transitions: growing diversity in race, religion, and sexual orientation; evolving roles for women; and the move from an industrial economy to one grounded in the Information Age. Democrats have become the party of the people and places most immersed in, and welcoming of, those shifts: people of color, Millennials and members of Generation Z, secular adults who don’t identify with any religious tradition, and college-educated white professionals, all of them clustered in the nation’s largest metropolitan centers.Heading into the campaign’s final weekend, Trump is facing erosion on both sides of this divide, with Biden consolidating most elements of the coalition of transformation, eroding Trump’s advantages with blue-collar and older white voters, and laying siege to the midsize industrial cities across the Rust Belt that moved sharply toward the president in 2016. Behind this two-front advance, Biden has consistently led Trump in national polls and surveys of the six swing states that both sides are most heavily contesting, especially the three in the Rust Belt that tipped the 2016 race to the president: Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.Many Democrats remain unnerved by the prospect that, like a general advancing an army under cover of night, Trump will mobilize an unanticipated turnout surge from his base voters and win the Electoral College (if not the popular vote), the same way he did last time.That’s possible, but it remains less likely than in 2016, because the voters opposing him appear determined to turn out in much higher numbers, too. I’ve often said that modern American politics can be reduced to a single question: How long can Paducah tell Seattle what to do? Next week the answer may be that Seattle—that is, America’s future—has mobilized to reclaim control of the nation’s direction from Paducah—its past—and perhaps by a resounding margin.Without discounting the possibility of an upset, Tuesday’s results are likely to demonstrate that the Democrats’ coalition of transformation is now larger—even much larger—than the Republicans’ coalition of restoration. With Trump solidifying the GOP’s transformation into a “white-identity party … a nationalist party, not unlike parties you see in Europe, … you see the Democratic Party becoming the party of literally everyone else,” as the longtime Republican political consultant Michael Madrid, a co-founder of the anti-Trump Lincoln Project, told me.The broad backlash against Trump’s vision of the GOP across the diverse, metro-based emerging America could provide Democrats unified control of government for the first time since 2010. It could also underscore the growing difficulty Republicans will face attracting majority support in elections to come.[Read: How the minority wins]And yet even a decisive Democratic win would not guarantee that the party can actually implement its policy agenda. As if laying sandbags against the coming demographic wave, Republicans have erected a series of defenses that could allow them to impede their rivals—even if demographic and social change combine to more clearly stamp Democrats as the nation’s majority party in the years ahead. And that could make the 2020s the most turbulent decade for America since the 1850s, when a very similar dynamic unfolded.Donald Trump didn’t start the electorate’s re-sorting along the lines of transformation and restoration, but he has made the process vastly more intense and venomous. Throughout his divisive, belligerent, and norm-breaking presidency, Trump has governed as a wartime president for red America, with blue America—not any foreign nation—as the adversary.In both rhetoric and policy, Trump has positioned himself in almost unrelenting opposition to the emerging America—from demonizing cities as dirty and dangerous to eviscerating Obama’s climate-change agenda. When the coronavirus pandemic initially exploded in blue states and cities, Trump feuded with Democratic governors and mayors and threatened to withhold federal aid when they criticized him. Likewise, when the death of George Floyd prompted enormous racial-justice protests nationwide, Trump disparaged the Black Lives Matter movement as a “symbol of hate,” deployed federal law enforcement into Democratic-run cities over the objections of local officials, and, through his Justice Department, even explored bringing criminal charges against several Democratic mayors for failing to act more aggressively against protesters.In the campaign, Trump has run as much against the emerging America as he has against Biden. Earlier Republican presidential nominees might have implied to white suburbanites that minorities are a threat to their safety or lifestyle, as in the Willie Horton ad that George H. W. Bush ran in 1988. But Trump has made the implicit explicit, warning that Biden would unloose a “mob” of rioters through suburbia. He’s claimed that Biden would appoint New Jersey Senator Cory Booker, a Black man, to enforce integration of low-income families. The Republican convention provided a prominent speaking slot to a white couple from St. Louis who face felony charges for brandishing guns at racial-justice protesters. In all these ways, Trump has presented himself as the last line of defense—a human wall—against the changes that so many of his supporters fear.This belligerence has helped bond Trump to his base. But the price of this approach has been clear in elections throughout his presidency. The first warning came in 2017, when a sharp recoil from Trump in the suburbs of northern Virginia and Richmond swept Democrats to control of the governorship and state House of Representatives, despite continued GOP strength in rural areas. In 2018, that revolt expanded nationwide, as Democrats recaptured the U.S. House behind sweeping gains, not only in suburban areas that were already trending blue, but also in Sun Belt metros where Republicans had not previously been vulnerable. The backlash was measured in more than votes: Democrats benefited in 2018 from an enormous surge in campaign contributions and volunteer activity.Those elections proved only a prologue to a 2020 mobilization against Trump that may be unprecedented in its magnitude. Though Biden, a 77-year-old career politician, does not inspire much personal passion among his party’s voters, his campaign has raised more money than any presidential nominee before him, the majority of it from small donors; the biggest surge has come from the same white-collar communities that have repudiated Trump’s GOP at the ballot box. The casts of iconic television shows and movies, including Seinfeld and The Avengers, have reunited to hold virtual fundraisers for Biden and state Democratic parties. LeBron James has led a campaign of professional athletes to recruit thousands of poll workers to ensure that polling places remain open in minority neighborhoods. Political leaders across the Democratic spectrum—from Bernie Sanders to Joe Manchin—have locked arms to campaign for Biden. Publications that have never endorsed a presidential candidate (Scientific American) or have rarely supported a Democrat (the arch-conservative New Hampshire Union Leader) have backed him. Dozens of former Republican elected officials, hundreds of former GOP executive-branch appointees, several former mid-level officials in Trump’s own government, and, perhaps most visibly of all, Cindy McCain have all publicly thrown their weight behind Biden. Blue and pink (that is, moderate Republican) America have left everything on the field in their battle to take down Trump.The evidence from both polling and early voting signals that this energy will translate into enormous turnout among most of the groups in the coalition of transformation, with a bigger share of them than in 2016 likely to vote against Trump. This threatens the president (and other Republicans) with a compounding effect: losing a bigger slice of a growing pie.Trump, for instance, appears likely to lose college-educated white voters by more than he did last time; in fact, he may lose them by the widest margin for any GOP presidential nominee ever. Especially sobering for Republicans is that not only is Trump facing a potentially record deficit among college-educated white women, who’ve been drifting to the Democrats since the early 1990s, but he could also lose a substantial majority of their male counterparts, a traditionally Republican-leaning group that most data sources say he carried in 2016.Young people are also moving further toward the Democrats. Trump has never been popular with younger voters. Democrats are confident that Biden, despite the limits of his own appeal to young people, can improve on Clinton’s 2016 performance (when she won only 55 percent, as many younger adults drifted to third-party candidates) to match Obama’s 2012 showing among adults younger than 30 (60 percent), and perhaps equal his huge haul in 2008 (66 percent). With the oldest Millennials about to turn 40, Biden should also improve on Clinton’s margins among voters in their 30s.Trump’s circle of religious support is narrowing, too. In 2016, Trump not only won four-fifths of white evangelical Christians, but also carried majorities of white Catholics and white mainline Protestants; now, a recent poll by the Public Religion Research Institute (PRRI) shows Biden leading with Catholics and running about even among Protestants. Both then and now, Trump faces rejection from about 70 percent of the growing number of secular adults who don’t identify with any religious tradition.The sole potential exception to this pattern is the possibility that Trump could notch some gains with Black and Latino men (especially younger ones, who are doubtful that either party can deliver for them). But the immovable resistance Trump faces from Black and Latino women limits the overall growth he can expect among voters of color (including Asian Americans, who are likely to vote against him in even larger proportions than Latinos).[Read: What liberals don’t understand about pro-Trump Latinos]While Trump faces the likelihood that most key groups in the coalition of transformation will coalesce against him in significantly greater numbers than in 2016, he is struggling to generate comparable unity on his side of the divide. Trump continues to stir enormous enthusiasm among his core constituencies. But even increased turnout may not benefit Trump as much as in 2016, because he is facing modest, but measurable, erosion in his margins among some of his best groups.Seniors have been the most visible defectors. No Democratic presidential nominee has carried voters 65 or older since Al Gore in 2000, but disillusionment over Trump’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic, combined with a greater affinity for Biden than for Hillary Clinton, has provided the former vice president a chance to break that streak. Even Trump’s backing from his core group of non-college-educated white voters is wavering—slightly, but potentially pivotally. Trump still draws around 60 percent of their votes in national polls. But even that formidable showing represents a decline from 2016, when he captured around two-thirds, the best performance for any nominee in either party since Ronald Reagan in 1984. Against Biden, Trump isn’t matching those elevated margins, especially among blue-collar white women and especially in the key Rust Belt states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.The common theme of all of these trends: The circle is closing tighter around Trump.“In 2016, you still had some Republicans, some conservatives who were biting their tongue and voting for Trump, taking him ‘seriously but not literally,’” the Tufts University political scientist Brian Schaffner, who has studied the roles sexism and racism played in the last election, told me. But since at least 2018, there’s been “a whittling away of people who weren’t necessarily strong supporters for him, but voted for him out of a habit of voting for Republican nominees.” With more of those Americans gone from the Trump coalition, he will grow even more dependent than in 2016 on the voters most uneasy with racial change and evolving roles for women. “We are going to be even more sorted [in this election] along these cultural markers about race attitudes and attitudes about misogyny,” Schaffner said.Geography tells the same story of a narrowing circle for Trump and the GOP. Even compared to last time, Trump and his party are slipping further in the populous places that most embody the nation’s changes. At the same time, Biden is clawing back ground in some of the areas that provided the foundation of Trump’s victory, the small and midsize communities that more closely resemble the profile of mid-20th-century America.In almost every state, the best way to think about the political alignment now is to imagine a beltway circling each of the major population centers; all of the bustling communities inside those beltways are becoming more blue, while the less densely settled terrain beyond them is turning deeper red.In 2020, Biden is consolidating the vote inside those beltways and denting the president’s dominance beyond them. Biden appears likely to recover at least some ground in midsize, blue-collar cities where Trump recorded huge gains last time, such as his hometown of Scranton, Pennsylvania. And while Biden is unlikely to pry away many rural counties from Trump, Democrats are cautiously optimistic that he can reduce the president’s margin in some of them, particularly across the Rust Belt.[Read: The real threats to America’s cities]Simultaneously, Trump is at risk of cratering in America’s population centers. Already, in 2016, Trump lost 87 of the country’s 100 largest counties to Clinton; this year, he could lose about half of the 13 he won. (Maricopa County, centered on Phoenix, is one to watch: The largest county in America that Trump captured four years ago, it has seen its voters move away from Republicans, starting in the 2018 midterms.)Trump’s problem isn’t just that some of the large counties he carried in 2016 will turn against him. Many of the ones he lost appear poised to deliver even bigger—maybe much bigger—margins for the Democrats. Clinton, for instance, won Harris County, home to Houston, by about 160,000 votes; local political observers I spoke with believe Biden could at least double that margin in 2020. Likewise, Biden appears virtually certain to improve on Clinton’s totals in big urban centers with large Black populations, such as Detroit, Milwaukee, Cleveland, and Philadelphia, where turnout declined, in some cases substantially, relative to Obama’s 2012 showing. In the 100 largest counties, Clinton won by 15 million votes combined; Biden could substantially enlarge that number.In the same way that Trump has isolated the GOP from the growing groups in American society driving demographic change, he is exiling the Republican Party from the places at the cutting edge of economic change. The Metropolitan Policy Program at the Brookings Institution calculated that while Clinton in 2016 won fewer than one-sixth of U.S. counties, her counties accounted for nearly two-thirds of total GDP. “What we’ve seen is an increased sorting in which the Democratic vote has aligned around a future-oriented, higher-tech information economy, anchored by diverse urban places with dense collections of workers,” Mark Muro, the MPP’s policy director, told me. “Meanwhile, the Republican vote has sorted to essentially become a bastion of holdover traditionalist economic activities”—led by manufacturing, energy extraction, and agriculture—“and smaller, rural, less dense places.”That sorting could intensify next week. What’s happening to the GOP, Muro said, is that the decline already recorded under Trump in the core urban centers of the new economy is now spreading to the periphery, to the inner suburbs around them. “There is a lot of tech in unglamorous office parks,” as well as “financial services and professional services,” Muro said. Those areas “are certainly on the bubble here” and could break for Biden. On November 3, Muro’s calculations suggest, Trump might be reduced to winning counties that account for 30 percent or less of the nation’s total economic output.Apart from law-and-order messages aimed at what he calls the “suburban housewives of America,” Trump has done little as president to combat his erosion in the large metropolitan areas driving the economy’s transition. Instead, he has devoted enormous effort to fortifying his support among workers in the dominant industries of the 20th century, which are mostly located in smaller communities. He has deluged farmers with billions in subsidies, repealed all of Obama’s key initiatives to reduce reliance on fossil fuels and fight climate change, and touted his trade deals as a boon for manufacturing.But almost all of the Republicans I’ve spoken with agree that trading small towns for big suburbs is an unsustainable strategy. With relatively few exceptions, the areas where Trump is strongest are stagnant or decreasing in population, while jobs, innovation, and people are concentrating inside of the metropolitan centers that are poised to repudiate him in massive numbers. “The Republican base has migrated from the country club to the country, and that’s just not where the people are,” says Tom Davis, a former Republican representative from northern Virginia who once chaired the National Republican Congressional Committee. “There is no question [that] long term it is a losing proposition.”Even in the unlikely (but not inconceivable) event that Trump squeezes out another Electoral College victory, it seems almost certain that Biden will win the national popular vote. If he does, Democrats will have won the most votes in seven of the past eight presidential elections. No party has managed that since the formation of the modern party system in 1828. Likewise, the 47 current Democratic senators won 14 million more votes in their most recent elections than the 53 current Republicans, according to calculations by the Brookings Institution’s Molly Reynolds. With Democrats poised for Senate gains in midsize and larger states—such as Colorado, Arizona, and possibly North Carolina and Georgia—that imbalance will widen next week. Democrats don’t have the power in Washington to show for it right now, but in this century they have a much stronger claim than Republicans to be the nation’s majority party.[Read: The huge snag in Trump’s reelection pitch]The increasing influence of the racially diverse, heavily secular, and well-educated Millennials and Gen Zers will make it difficult for Republicans to dislodge Democrats from that majority position. This year will mark the most profound generational transition in the electorate since around 1980, when the Baby Boom supplanted the Greatest Generation as the largest bloc of voters, according to analysis by the nonpartisan States of Change project. Since then, for a remarkable four decades, Boomers have ruled as the largest group of both eligible and actual voters. But in 2020, for the first time, Millennials and Gen Zers have matched the Boomers as a share of eligible voters. And by 2024, the two younger generations will equal the Boomers and even older generations at the ballot box, and will surpass them by substantial margins very quickly thereafter, States of Change projects.That’s an ominous prospect for the GOP. Trump has run well among Baby Boomers, but he has defined the party in opposition to seemingly every priority that the younger generations have embraced, including climate change, racial equity, and gay rights. Trump might as well try to convince fish to fear water as to persuade young people to view the diverse country around them as harmful to American traditions. “On every one of these issues that has to do with a more pluralistic, cosmopolitan America, they grow up living in that world,” Robert P. Jones, PRRI’s founder and CEO, told me. “There is no conceivable way most of them will be sold on the idea that it’s a threat.”Yet it’s far from clear that the coalition of transformation can implement its agenda, even if it convincingly establishes itself as the nation’s majority through the coming decade. Republicans benefit from multiple features of the current electoral system that could allow them to hobble Democrats.The Electoral College and the Senate magnify the influence of the small, mostly white and Christian interior states that now lean reliably toward the GOP. Even if Biden wins next week, control of the Senate remains on the knife’s edge. And even if Democrats do win a narrow Senate majority, the Senate filibuster, which amplifies small states’ power, could stymie much of their agenda. Senators representing states with as little as 11 percent of the population can muster the 41 votes to maintain a filibuster, according to calculations from Adam Jentleson, a former deputy chief of staff to onetime Democratic Senate leader Harry Reid and the author of an upcoming book arguing for Senate reform. “You can get to 41 votes to sustain a filibuster simply by assembling states that Trump won by 20 points or more,” Jentleson told me.If Democrats win the upper chamber, they might terminate the filibuster, as a growing number in the party have proposed. But even then, they would face the last line of GOP defense: the new six-to-three Republican majority on the Supreme Court. The justices could repeatedly invalidate Democratic legislation and executive-branch actions. For instance, it’s not hard to imagine that with unified control of government, Democrats might take the monumental step of ending the Senate filibuster to pass a new Voting Rights Act, only to see the Republican Court majority strike it down (as the 2013 Shelby County decision did to a key element of the original VRA). With the oldest members of that Republican bloc only in their early 70s, this conservative Court majority could easily persist through the entire decade of the 2020s. Unless Democrats pursue legislation to change the Court’s structure, the oldest Millennials might turn 50 before the current conservative majority is dislodged.[Read: The end of the filibuster—no, really]These same flammable ingredients were present in the 1850s, when a rising majority found it impossible to impose its agenda because of all the structural obstacles laid down by the retreating minority. As the decade proceeded, it became more and more clear that the newly formed Republican Party, dedicated to barring the spread of slavery to the territories, constituted an emerging national majority. It was centered on the northern states, which by 1860 would represent 60 percent of America’s population, including 70 percent of its white population. In their writings and speeches, southerners were acutely conscious of their status as a national minority. Yet for decades they successfully maneuvered to block restrictions on slavery through their powerful position in the Senate and their influence over pro-slavery Democratic presidents. That allowed them not only to suppress most legislative threats, but also to establish a friendly majority on the Supreme Court. In the 1857 Dred Scott decision, the Supreme Court, with seven of its nine justices appointed by earlier pro-South Democratic presidents, declared that Congress could not prohibit slavery in the territories. As the Princeton University historian Sean Wilentz recently told me, “What Dred Scott did, in effect, was to declare the platform of the Republican Party unconstitutional.”Whether Abraham Lincoln could have maneuvered around those obstacles we’ll never know, because the South seceded before anyone could find out. Even if Democrats consistently win elections through the 2020s, red states aren’t likely to follow the example of the pre–Civil War South and quit the union. But Republican behavior in recent years suggests that they share the antebellum South’s determination to control the nation’s direction as a minority. That determination is evident in the extraordinary steps Republicans have taken to shift the Supreme Court, including denying a vote on Obama nominee Merrick Garland in 2016 and then rushing a vote on Trump nominee Amy Coney Barrett this month, after more than 60 million Americans had already voted. It’s evident in the flood of laws that Republican states have passed over the past decade making it more difficult to vote. And it’s evident in the fervent efforts from the party to restrict access to mail-in voting this year. In many ways, recent history has suggested that Republicans believe they have a better chance of maintaining power by suppressing the diverse new generations entering the electorate than by courting them.What’s unclear is whether a Trump defeat could cause Republicans to reconsider that path. After the 2012 election, the Republican National Committee commissioned its heralded “autopsy,” which concluded that the GOP must expand its appeal to young and nonwhite voters. Instead, Trump pursued the polar-opposite strategy: maximizing support among older and non-college-educated white people by presenting those growing constituencies as a threat. A Trump defeat might well prompt Republicans to exhume the autopsy. But if more of the GOP’s white-collar voters abandon the party next week, as seems virtually certain, there may not be much of an electoral foundation for such a reconsideration.The reason: If racial and cultural moderates abandon the GOP, the voters left in the party will tilt even further toward Trump’s message of racial and cultural resentment. “The Republican Party is going to continue to shrink and become more monolithic and less relevant and more regionalized,” Madrid, the Lincoln Project co-founder, told me. “They believe they are the last stand for America and [that] America is the white Christian nation. They believe they are what America is. And that kind of identity gets stronger as it loses—it becomes more self-righteous as it loses.”The inexorable change coming to the Democratic Party could make the GOP even more reactionary. Biden has defined himself as a “transitional” figure, and demands are already building for a Democratic leadership corps that reflects the party’s increasing reliance on young people and people of color. It’s not hard to imagine that by 2024, Democrats will be led by presidential nominee Kamala Harris, who is of Jamaican and Indian descent; vice-presidential nominee Pete Buttigieg, an openly gay man; and House Speaker Hakeem Jeffries, who would be the first Black person to hold that post. Much like Obama did in 2008, such a roster would symbolize a changing America in a way that inspires the coalition of transformation—but terrifies many in the coalition of restoration. “It would touch on everything that a lot of Trump supporters were reacting to when they supported him in 2016—this sense of feeling threatened by the [challenge] to white supremacy in the U.S,” Schaffner told me.California over the past 30 years may offer a hopeful vision of how America could work through these coming conflicts. During the 1990s, as minorities were slowly becoming a majority of the state’s population, racial tension soared. With preponderant support from white voters, conservatives passed a series of ballot initiatives targeting those minority groups, including Proposition 187, which cut off services for undocumented immigrants; a ban on bilingual education; and tougher criminal-sentencing laws. But once California passed the racial tipping point and the sky didn’t fall, tensions dramatically eased. In years since, the state has repealed much of the hard-line agenda it approved during the 1990s. If that’s the nation’s path, the next few years may be rocky, but today’s political fault lines could slowly dissolve. Americans could re-sort themselves around less volatile differences over taxes and spending, instead of their feelings about racial and cultural change.The alternative is the 1850s scenario. On that path, the Republican coalition remains centered on culturally conservative white Americans who grow more embittered and radical as evidence mounts that they cannot stop the emerging majority from instituting its agenda. If this many non-college-educated and Christian white voters are receptive to a Trump-style racial-identity message when they constitute a little over 40 percent of the population, there’s little reason to believe fewer of them will respond to it when they fall to 38 or 36 percent as the decade proceeds. Already, research by the Vanderbilt University political scientist Larry Bartels has found that a stunningly high percentage of Republican voters express sympathy for an array of antidemocratic sentiments, such as the half who agreed that the “traditional American way of life is disappearing so fast that we may have to use force to save it.” A similar impulse to embrace any means necessary for maintaining power is evident in the virtual silence from GOP leaders as Trump has openly called for criminal prosecution of Obama and Hillary Clinton, as well as Biden and his family (not to mention the choice by every Republican in Congress, except Utah Senator Mitt Romney, to decline sanctioning Trump for trying to extort Ukraine to manufacture dirt on Biden).A Republican Party deepening its reliance on the most racially resentful white voters, as Democrats more thoroughly represent the nation’s accelerating diversity, could test the bonds of the union to the greatest extent since the Civil War. If Trump wins a second term, that crisis could come very quickly: Blue America isn’t likely to quietly acquiesce if a reelected Trump follows through on any of his multiple threats to criminalize his opponents, deploy large numbers of federal law-enforcement officers to blue cities, or pursue punitive actions against media institutions and technology companies he considers threats.Winning next week would give Biden an opportunity to temper partisan hostilities and “bind up the nation’s wounds,” as Lincoln put it. But through his long career, the former vice president has not often shown the dexterity required to satisfy the ascendant left in his own party while building meaningful bridges to the other party. Nor is there much reason to believe that the Republicans left in Congress after a big Democratic win—a group that would be concentrated in Trump country even more than today’s GOP caucus—would have much interest in reaching back out to Biden. The 2020 election has been among the most vitriolic and divisive America has ever experienced, with the prospect of further disruption and even violence still lingering in its aftermath. But all of that may be just the opening bell for a decade that tests the nation’s cohesion like few others ever have.
How Trump Could Shock the World Again
It was late in the evening at Hillary Clinton’s victory party in 2016, and by that point, the guests understood there would be neither a victory nor a party. As Donald Trump’s upset sank in among the hordes at the Javits Center in Manhattan, I asked one Clinton supporter how he was feeling. “Like I want to kill myself,” he said.Later, at a bar in Hell’s Kitchen, I stumbled upon a group of Clinton-campaign aides sitting together in tears. A tray of shots sat on the table before them. They shared a look of shock: How could this possibly have happened? Trump trails Joe Biden by an average of eight points nationally, and is behind in every important battleground state. But his reelection still seems plausible, if only because 2016 seemed so implausible. “If I take my PTSD hat off, I can feel semi-comfortable about where things are,” Steve Schale, a Democratic strategist in Florida, told me. “But it’s impossible to take my PTSD hat off.”Better to leave it on. Surrounding Trump is an apparatus that is still trying to flip states and woo evangelical, Latino, and Black voters, who could all make a difference in a tight race. “There are some people on the Trump campaign who understand political strategy,” Ryan Williams, a spokesperson for Mitt Romney’s 2012 campaign, told me. “They’re just overridden on a daily basis by whatever the president says or does.”Certainly, the chaos candidate isn’t making the job any easier. At a rally last week, Trump told the people of Erie, Pennsylvania, that he’d rather be somewhere other than the city they call home. Still, the president’s reelection campaign is doing a few things that might work. Here are four.Trying to expand the mapThe president will be better positioned for another Electoral College victory if he can pry loose a state or two that Democrats won last time. His campaign has been eyeing New Hampshire and Nevada, but another target, Minnesota, has as many Electoral College votes as the other two combined. Clinton carried Minnesota by only 45,000 votes in 2016. Although Republicans haven’t won it since 1972, a play for Minnesota is not a bad gamble: At minimum, competing in the state forces Democrats to divert resources from other battlegrounds.[Read: Don’t count Trump out]Minnesota Democrats estimate that as many as 250,000 white residents who didn’t go to college—the heart of Trump’s base—weren’t registered to vote in 2016. Republicans are taking pains to find them. While Democrats in the state have largely suspended door-to-door campaigning because of the pandemic, Republicans have kept at it. Last week, volunteers knocked on more than 130,000 doors in the state, a campaign official told me. “This is the largest organization that we’ve seen a Republican put into this state, in terms of advertising dollars, principal visits, and staff on the ground,” Ken Martin, the chair of the Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party, told me. “There’s no doubt that they have a significant operation here.”Trump’s campaign has booked more than $1.2 million in TV advertising in Minnesota in the final week of the campaign—more than it spent there in the preceding three weeks combined, according to Advertising Analytics, which tracks campaigns’ ad spending. Vice President Mike Pence held a rally in northern Minnesota on Monday, the latest in a series of visits to the state by Trump and top surrogates. Overall, the Trump campaign has deployed 60 staffers in Minnesota, a level of Republican intensity surpassing that of any race in memory, both parties say. (Democrats say they have many more staffers on the ground in the state).Biden’s lead in Minnesota stands at 5 percentage points, according to the Real Clear Politics average of polls. That number could be inflated. State-level polling proved flawed in 2016: Clinton won Minnesota by 1.5 percentage points even though some of the final polls showed her up by double digits. “Knowing what we do about 2016, we would all be foolish to imbue the polls with undue certainty,” Charles Franklin, a pollster, told me. Both Biden and Trump are scheduled to make dueling appearances in Minnesota today.Winning Minnesota would give Trump “some leeway to lose another state that he won last time,” Williams said. “It’s an insurance policy,” even if it isn’t “a game changer.” Minnesota has the same number of electoral votes as Wisconsin, for example—a battleground that Trump narrowly won four years ago. Should he lose Wisconsin this time, he’d be no worse off in the Electoral College tally if he manages to wrest Minnesota from the Democrats.Microtargeting Latino votersTrump’s campaign is sending customized messages to voters of Cuban, Colombian, Venezuelan and Nicaraguan heritage who may be receptive to the president’s anti-socialist rhetoric.“It’s classic microtargeting,” José Parra, a Democratic consultant and former aide to ex–Senate Democratic leader Harry Reid, told me. Trump is “going after the main groups in South Florida that could help him out in blunting Democratic turnout.”A theme of Trump’s messaging is that he’s a bulwark against leftist ideology espoused by specific political figures in Latin America. “These are folks who are generally religious and culturally conservative,” Nick Trainer, the campaign’s director of battleground strategy, told me of the voters being targeted. “Especially in Florida, the Cuban and Venezuelan voters often have left countries that have communist histories. The advantage of incumbency is we get to spend time homing in on each and every piece of the electorate.”One ad juxtaposes images of Biden and the late Cuban leader Fidel Castro, a reviled figure in much of Florida’s Cuban American voting bloc, which numbers about 900,000, according to Eduardo Gamarra, a political-science professor at Florida International University specializing in Latin American politics. The same ad also includes footage of Gustavo Petro, a former Colombian guerrilla and an ex-mayor of Bogotá, saying he supports Biden. About 200,000 Colombians living in Florida are registered to vote, Gamarra said. Asked about the ad, a Biden-campaign official told me, “No, he [Biden] doesn’t want the support of Petro. Of course we don’t. Just—no.”Meanwhile, Trump used his Twitter feed earlier this month to congratulate Colombia’s ex-president Álvaro Uribe after he was ordered released from house arrest amid an investigation into alleged witness tampering. Uribe’s tenure was also linked to human-rights abuses. Trump called him a “hero” and an opponent of socialism.[Read: What liberals don’t understand about pro-Trump Latinos]“It’s smart politics,” Gamarra said. Trump is “playing to the right wing here in Miami. Most Colombians are Democrats. But all he needs—and this is key—is to move these communities by 5 or 10 percent and that’s enough to change the equation in Florida.”Shoring up evangelical votersWhite evangelical Christians accounted for 20 percent of people who voted in 2016. Today, they constitute only 18 percent of registered voters, according to the Pew Research Center. Some are tiring of Trump’s act. He received 80 percent of the evangelical vote in 2016; a Pew poll earlier this month showed that his support had slipped to 78 percent. “He needs maximal white-evangelical turnout. That’s his only path to winning,” Michael Wear, who handled religious outreach for former President Barack Obama’s 2012 reelection campaign, told me.“All the evangelicals I know have expressed chagrin, or concern, or heartburn, or some combination of the three about some of the president’s vocabulary and some of the president’s posturing toward those with whom he disagrees,” Richard Land, the president of the Southern Evangelical Seminary and a member of a group called Evangelicals for Trump, told me.There isn’t much Trump can do about the larger demographic trends that have trimmed his base, but he can give evangelical voters reason to show up at the polls. In the final sprint to Election Day, Evangelicals for Trump is holding several “Praise, Prayer, and Patriotism,” events in battleground states. Past meetings featured the Florida televangelist Paula White and Alveda King, a niece of Martin Luther King Jr. A meeting at a Las Vegas hotel this summer drew hundreds of people—along with condemnation from the state’s Democratic governor, Steve Sisolak, for violating COVID-19 restrictions limiting gatherings to 50 people.For the faithful, Trump isn’t an obvious choice. As my colleague McKay Coppins wrote, Trump has privately mocked Christian leaders and derided certain religious rites and doctrines. But he’s also taken action that matters to evangelicals, capped by the hasty nomination of the newest conservative Supreme Court justice, Amy Coney Barrett, whom he swore in Monday night. She is the third justice he’s installed on the high court, cementing a conservative majority that will decide cases on abortion rights, religious freedom, and other cultural issues long after Trump is gone. Trump is deploying “a very clever, cynical, and mostly successful strategy,” Rob Schenck, an evangelical minister who supports Biden, told me. “He made a deal with American evangelicals. He said, ‘You tell me what you want and I will deliver it, and you will give me back what I want—and that’s your vote.’”Holding rallies to recruit new votersDemocrats went through rounds of finger-pointing after Clinton’s defeat. Should Biden lose, a similar reckoning will begin anew. Already, some analysts point to inroads Republicans have made in voter registration as a potential problem.At Trump rallies, campaign aides have been checking to make sure supporters are registered to vote. (Biden largely chose to forgo big rallies because of the pandemic). In Florida, the Democratic registration advantage is down to about 134,000 voters, out of a total of more than 14 million. By contrast, in the 2000 election, Democrats’ registration lead in Florida was 379,000. In Pennsylvania, Republicans have cut the Democrats’ registration lead since 2016 from 916,000 to 687,000, out of 9 million registered voters. That’s not a trivial difference. Four years ago, Trump won Pennsylvania by just 44,000 votes.Sean Trende, a senior elections analyst at Real Clear Politics, cites the registration numbers along with Trump’s relatively high approval ratings on the economy as evidence that he could prevail. “If Trump does pull out the win or overperforms expectations significantly, we would look back at these types of things and say, ‘Yeah, it was there all along!’” Trende told me.Trump wasn’t supposed to win last time, making it harder to believe that he may lose this time. “You have this gnawing feeling in the back of your head about how wrong everyone was in 2016,” Chris Kofinis, a Democratic strategist, told me. “When people this time suggest, ‘There’s no way Trump can win; look at the polls; it’s impossible’—I heard that exact same nonsense in 2016. We all lived it.”
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