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La factura mensual en desempleo y pensiones roza los 15.000 millones

La máquina del gasto está a tope de revoluciones. El impacto del coronavirus en el mercado laboral ha disparado el pago de prestaciones y esta tendencia se refleja con claridad en la estadística. En los primeros seis meses el desembolso en desempleo se ha disparado hasta los 20.121 millones, lo que supone un 120% más que los pagos que el SEPE realizaba en el mismo periodo del año anterior. Hoy, cuatro millones de personas reciben una ayuda, que de media es de 1.066 euros al mes, cuyo coste para las arcas públicas alcanza los 4,2 millones. Una escalada de gasto que se explica por los ERTE, que llegaron a recibir cuatro millones de ocupados. Pero el Ejecutivo también puso en marcha subsidios para empleadas de hogar y trabajadores temporales despedidos y amplió también la cobertura de los trabajadores sanitarios. Les reconoció que las prestaciones, en caso de contagiarse del coronavirus, se consideran derivadas de accidente de trabajo y, en los casos de fallecimiento, se tratará de igual forma, siempre que se produzca en los cinco años siguientes al contagio. Si al desembolso de todas estas ayudas le sumamos lo que cada mes debe pagar la Seguridad en pensiones, la factura mensual para el Estado se dispara hasta rozar los 15.000 millones, teniendo en cuenta que mensualmente las jubilaciones de nueve millones de beneficiarios se llevan ya casi 10.000 millones. El escenario ya anticipa un año muy negro para la Seguridad Social. La parálisis económica para frenar la pandemia va a golpear sus ya maltrechas cuentas, verá cómo se agrandan los números rojos que arrastra desde 2011, que a finales de 2019 superaban los 17.000 millones. El Gobierno ya ha reconocido que el sistema verá gravemente mermados sus ingresos, al tiempo que aumentará sus gastos por el pago de prestaciones extraordinarias. Su déficit y su deuda irán hasta porcentajes desconocidos, lo que convierte a este sistema en el principal foco de preocupación de las cuentas públicas. Su reforma es una condición impuesta para recibir las ayudas que vienen de Europa. La ejecución presupuestaria de la Seguridad Social hasta junio refleja que los gastos avanzan un ritmo del 9%, pero que l os ingresos por cotizaciones, el principal pulmón de inyección de fondos, caen casi un 5% en el régimen general, el que aporta más recursos a las arcas de las pensiones. Este desfase entre ingresos y gastos ha llevado al departamento que dirige José Luis Escrivá a endeudarse año tras año, sobre todo una vez agotado el Fondo de Reserva, al que no le queda liquidez ni para hacer frente a una nómina mensual. El recurso al endeudamiento ha sido la tónica. En mayo el Ejecutivo aprobó dos nuevos préstamos del Estado a la Seguridad Social por valor de 30.500 millones. Un rosario de préstamos El primero de los créditos, de 14.000 millones, fue destinado a paliar la caída de ingresos por la destrucción de empleo causada por la parálisis económica y por las exenciones en el pago de las cotizaciones aprobadas para las empresas y autónomos en el caso de ERTE y prestación extraordinaria por cese de actividad. Y el segundo fueron 16.500 millones sin intereses para que la Tesorería hiciera frente al incremento del pago de prestaciones por desempleo generadas por los ERTE. A estos créditos hay que sumar un tercer préstamo concedido por el Tesoro, por cuarto año consecutivo, por 13.800 millones para el abono de las dos pagas extra de los pensionistas. Ya estaba incluido en los Presupuestos prorrogados de 2018. Las estimaciones de Autoridad Independiente de Responsabilidad Fiscal (Airef) sitúan la deuda de la Seguridad Social este año en cien mil millones. Un desequilibrio explosivo que está condicionando de forma notable el endeudamiento del Estado. Como ya informó ABC el pasivo de las Administraciones ha escalado ya hasta el 114% del PIB tras dispararse en 88.000 millones en la pandemia. Este panorama no ha dejado más salida al Gobierno que recurrir al rescate europeo. A final de año España recibirá 140.000 millones -72.700 millones en ayudas directas- condicionadas a reformas y ha sido el primer país de la UE en solicitar formalmente a la Comisión Europea los fondos del SURE, el instrumento comunitario ideado de forma temporal para mitigar el golpe de la covid en el empleo. Con este rescate el Ejecutivo se asegura financiación a un precio barato a largo plazo, y se resta presión sobre las emisiones de deuda y, por tanto, sobre la prima de riesgo española. El montante solicitado es de 20.000 millones y con estos recursos se financiarán ERTE y el cese de actividad de autónomos, cuyos costes en el punto más alto de la crisis del coronavirus, en mayo, alcanzaron los 5.500 millones, cifra que se ha ido recortando con la salida de trabajadores y su incorporación a las empresas. Esquivar quiebras Esta protección se amplió antes del verano hasta finales de septiembre tras un acuerdo con los agentes sociales que permita margen a las empresas para poder remontar la actividad. Un escaso margen ya teniendo en cuenta la debacle del sector turístico y los casi 100.000 millones de perdidas previstas esta temporada, que si una ampliación de ERTE no lo remedia muchos se verán obligados a despedir. Es por ello por lo que empresarios y sindicatos y empresarios reclaman al Ejecutivo que amplíe hasta final de año la protección como barrera para esquivar quiebras y extinciones de empleo. La Autoridad Fiscal ha cifrado el coste de ampliar los ERTE hasta final de septiembre entre unos 23.000 y 25.000 millones. Estas estimaciones contemplan también lo que se deja de ingresar por exonerar las cotizaciones, que viene a ser un 30%. La factura se ampliará sensiblemente si la protección se lleva a final de año, algo con lo que no contaba el Gobierno. El turismo ha descabalgado los planes.
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