Brexit: DUP denies softening position on Irish backstop – live news

John Bercow suggests ‘procedural creativity’ to stop no-deal Brexit as DUP insists it is opposed to deal to make Northern Ireland different from the UK

10.39am BST

Sammy Wilson has repeated his leader Arlene Foster’s line that the Times story about the DUP softening its line on an Northern Ireland only backstop is “nonsense”.

The Times story is nonsense.

We will not accept a situation where the part of the to which we belong would be regarded as a third country when it comes to trade. pic.twitter.com/73p0Jt1F1O

10.27am BST

The odds of a no-deal exit have increased over the last week despite Parliament’s determination to prevent such an outcome, according to the Euroasia group thinktank.

So after saying an early election is impossible to predict, that's exactly what I'm now going to do. That's job description unfortunately.. Short thread with some initial thoughts 1/ https://t.co/uVkFoKgABF pic.twitter.com/juiONol5MQ

But deal can't be basecase. Time too short. Too many hurdles. I think odds have gone up, just - say from 15 to 20%. Near-term risk of no deal also fallen in light of A50 extension legislation - say from 30 to 20%. That leaves 60% early election. Will it clarify anything? 3/

1) Labour minority; 2) Tory minority or 3) deadlock (& probs another election). Each of these also has multiple permutations & complications. For eg even if Labour has fewer MPs than Tories, it may have a better chance of forming a Govt because of its potential partners 5/

Bottom line (after much initial work with pollsters + 3000 words of analysis?) Rather than clarify, election could reinforce #Brexit uncertainty. Poss pol outcomes suggest lots options will remain on table: no deal; Canada; CU/amended version of May’s deal; 2nd ref; Remain ENDS

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